Subjective Probability

In the definition of subjective probability, subjective judgment is used to provide an 'educated' guess as to the ratio of event outcomes over the total number in the sample space.

Examples

Any estimate of probability that is not based on empirical evidence or that has no degree of randomness to the outcomes involves the subjective definition of probability. The politician's statement: " Most Canadians would agree that ..... " is a classical example of subjective probability.

Subjective Probability of an Event

By its very nature, the subjective probability of an event E is simply what you want it to be, as long as it is expressed as a number between 0 and 1 or a percentage out of 100. More objective observers will provide a closer estimate to the actual probability than non-objective observers.

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Last Updated by SAS October 07, 2026, 16:00:54